Backing the Right Horse
The more time you spend betting on horse racing events, the more insight you’ll gain into the steeds and the better you’ll be at knowing what to look for, but the considerations outlined here are a good place to begin. Enjoy!
Questions on the Track, Post Position and Distance
- Has the horse previously performed well at this distance?
- How does the horse handle the current racetrack surface?
- What is the horse’s post position, in relation to the type of race? Sprint races tend to favour outside posts; inside positions do better on long-distance races.
- Will the horse be tired from recent shipping to run or competing in other races?
Questions on Start and Layoff Factors
- How long has the horse been off between races? If the time is more than 60 days, they may need time to get back to tip-top condition.
- How many starts has the horse had over the past 2 years? Over-raced mounts rarely win.
Questions on Odds
- What are the morning line odds? For winning horses, they are usually less than 20-1.
- Was the horse a beaten favourite in the last 3 starts? These cases are the ones that usually perform especially well in their next few races.
- Is it possible to beat the favourite? If your answer is yes, this race could be very lucrative.
- Has the horse won at high odds in the past?
Questions on Speed and Workout
- Has the horse displayed early speed or come out of a very high-speed race recently? These can be signs that they are close to a win.
- Does the horse perform fast workouts, showing overall fitness?
- Did the animal close and win from far back in its previous race? Replication of this herculean effort is unlikely.
Questions on the Jockey and Trainer
- Is the trainer’s win percentage good? Punters should check for the win % to determine whether they are on the right track.
- Has the trainer entered multiple horses? This usually indicates that the trainer is definitely looking to win, and is a good sign.
- Is the horse changing trainers or jockeys? This could be beneficial or detrimental.
- Has the jockey ridden this horse before and win?
- Did the jockey specifically choose this mount? If so, they are probably feeling confident in their winning chances and are a solid bet.
Questions on the State of the Horse
- Is the horse on any medication?
- Is any equipment, such as blinkers and front bandages, being added or removed?
- Has the horse picked up or dropped weight? A 5-pound drop is usually favourable, and a 5-pound gain is generally a problem.
- Is the horse younger than 6 years?
Questions on Class
- Is your prospect moving up or dropping a class? Either way, this can be very positive; they are performing very strongly or going against easier runners than they’re used to. When enjoying the best online betting Australia has to offer, keep an eye on class and it will pay off.
Questions on Form
- Did the horse recently run in a field of 12 steeds or more, and perform well? Even placing 3rd or 4th shows a lot of strength and that the horse will be rounding into form soon.
- In its past 3 starts, how many wins did the horse have? One win suggests they are still in great shape; 3 could show they will be getting fatigued soon.
- Is the lifetime win percentage 20% or more? This is the level you should look for.
Questions on Late Factors
Even when horses are at the gate, there are things to consider:
- Is the horse thrashing wildly or breaking through the gate prior to the start?
- Is the horse being vetted? Even if passed as fit to run, this is a worrying sign.
